A more serious post... for a change...

This post will be in English again, it’s about a global matter, and therefore I don’t wish to restrain it to Portuguese readers only.

World "by night"

Last week I’ve read an article about our environmental future and I have to tell you, I knew it was bad, but not that bad.

This article was an interview with Lester Brown, president of the “Earth Policy Institute” and founder of the “Worldwatch Institute”.

The main question is “Is our present economic system sustainable?”

The answer is clearly – NO!

There were several facts that caught my attention, specially about developing countries:

- China is now importing more cereals, meat, coal, steel and energy than the USA.

- If the Chinese economy continues to grow at 8%/year by the year 2031 the average per capita Chinese income will match that of the Americans.

- With such per capita income, China will consume 2/3 of the global cereal production.

- The Chinese paper consumption will by two times the global production. Meaning that all the forest in the planet will be used for paper production…

- If, like the Americans, Chinese will have an average of 3 cars for each 4 persons, they’ll have 1,1 billion cars. Today the world has 800 million cars.

- The necessary roads and parks for such a fleet will take the same space as Chine uses today for rise crops.

- This will also mean a consumption of 99 million barrels of oil per day, 15 million more barrels than what we produce today.

- By 2031 India will have even more population than China.

Mcdonalds in China

It inevitable not to recall the fate of Easter Island. An island where the local civilization disappeared after cutting off all the trees in the island to build fishing boat. That is our fate, is we don’t do anything about it!

According to Lester Brown, with our present behavior, our ecosystem will not last more than 20 years.

The world population has gone from 2 500 to 6000 millions in last 50 years and the planet’s natural resources are running out.

I can’t help to remember the words from “Agent Smith” in “The Matrix”:

“I’d like to share a revelation that I’ve had during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species. I’ve realized that you are not actually mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding environment. But you humans do not. You move to an area and you multiply until every natural resource is consumed and the only way you can survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. Do you know what it is? A virus.”

Although fictional, if have to admit that there is a point there…

We are in fact spreading, the world population increases 70 millions each year and every year 3 million hectares are turned into roads and building. Also the decrease in underground water lines is resulting in less and less cultivatable land.

With the food production is decreasing and a growing population, soon prices will increase dramatically, resulting in social problem and even military conflicts.

If there are wars over oil today, there will be over other resources in the future…

So, are doomed?

Some steps have been given which can give as some hope, such as new “green” energy sources, reforestation initiatives and mainly a growing environmental awareness.

However, we are still running out of resources, and main resource we are out off is – time!

We can go on with our present lifestyle and watch our own collapse, or we can try to do something about it.

This will be a decision that will mark our generation and affect those to come...

Allex